{"schema_version":1,"publisher":"Half on a Double","data_through":"2026-10-16","frequency":"end-of-day","methodology":"market-implied-carry-v1","generation":"market-implied-carry-analytics-20260917T000000Z","canonical_url":"https://halfonadouble.com/stock/PM","markdown_url":"https://halfonadouble.com/stock/PM.md","history_url":"https://halfonadouble.com/api/v1/history/PM.csv","advanced_analysis_url":"https://halfonadouble.com/api/v1/analysis/PM.json?date=2026-10-16&public_schema=4","definitions_url":"https://halfonadouble.com/methodology.md","license_url":"https://halfonadouble.com/terms.md","disclaimer_url":"https://halfonadouble.com/disclaimer.md","symbol":"PM","page_tier":"A","units":{"prices":"USD per share","open_interest":"option contracts","gamma_exposure":"modeled dollar-delta change per USD 1 underlying move","gamma_exposure_normalized":"modeled gamma exposure per 100,000 open option contracts","distances":"percent of close","forward_outcomes":"close-to-close percent return"},"snapshot":{"close":205.1999969482422,"previous_close":199.89999389648438,"delta_neutral":184.25319536804494,"gamma_neutral":182.17491562700138,"gamma_max":211.02085663429193,"total_open_interest":134425,"previous_open_interest":154315,"listed_contracts":470,"listed_calls":289,"listed_puts":269,"gamma_max_distance_pct":2.8366763024455333,"delta_neutral_distance_pct":-10.207993124620113,"gamma_neutral_distance_pct":-11.220800031029457,"open_interest_change_1d_pct":-12.889220101739948,"call_open_interest":69542,"put_open_interest":64883,"put_call_open_interest_ratio":0.933004515256967,"nearest_expiration_max_pain":195,"nearest_expiration_max_pain_expiry":"2026-10-23","nearest_expiration_max_pain_distance_pct":-4.970758820632412,"all_expiration_max_pain":182.5,"net_gamma_exposure":10277483.961766964,"net_gamma_exposure_per_100k_open_interest":7645515.3146862285,"gamma_exposure_flip":182.17491562700138,"gamma_exposure_flip_distance_pct":-11.220800031029457,"call_wall":210,"call_wall_distance_pct":2.339182808549711,"put_wall":190,"put_wall_distance_pct":-7.407406030359785,"gamma_max_cross_direction":null,"delta_neutral_cross_direction":null,"open_interest_rank":512},"history_summary":{"first_date":"2020-12-01","last_date":"2026-10-16","session_count":1404,"trailing_window_sessions":252,"sessions_above_gamma_max_pct":1.5873015873015872,"gamma_max_cross_count":8,"delta_neutral_cross_count":21,"gamma_max_prior_sessions_closer_pct":13.095238095238097,"gamma_max_prior_comparison_sessions":252,"delta_neutral_prior_sessions_closer_pct":99.20634920634922,"delta_neutral_prior_comparison_sessions":252,"open_interest_percentile_1y":15.476190476190476,"open_interest_change_1d_contracts":-19890,"open_interest_change_z_252":-2.114626657030173,"open_interest_change_z_comparison_sessions":252,"open_interest_change_5_sessions_pct":-5.415104031072115,"open_interest_change_21_sessions_pct":-17.07791006106964,"call_put_open_interest_changes":{"one_session":{"call_change_contracts":-8513,"put_change_contracts":-11377,"call_growth_pct":-10.906412145282172,"put_growth_pct":-14.918699186991871,"call_minus_put_growth_pp":4.012287041709699},"five_sessions":{"call_change_contracts":-1943,"put_change_contracts":-5753,"call_growth_pct":-2.718052738336714,"put_growth_pct":-8.144572172829719,"call_minus_put_growth_pp":5.426519434493004},"call_change_surprise":{"z_score":-1.8796425254424758,"comparison_sessions":252},"put_change_surprise":{"z_score":-2.2120636208364997,"comparison_sessions":252},"call_minus_put_growth_surprise":{"z_score":1.5822067237744468,"comparison_sessions":252}}},"advanced_options":{"data_through":"2026-10-16","analysis_coverage":1,"catalyst_score":53.82112011327887,"directional_score":-5.386158139035709,"catalyst_reasons":["front IV premium 16.2 pp"],"features":{"price":205.2,"totalOi":155588,"analysisCoverage":1,"avgIvPct":109.7,"ivRank":95,"iv52wHighPct":113.7,"iv52wLowPct":33.8,"frontDte":7,"termPremiumPp":16.175,"riskReversalFrontPp":-1.04,"riskReversal30dPp":9.29,"butterflyFrontPp":1.27,"butterfly30dPp":0.8,"putCallOiRatio":0.977,"putCallOiFrontRatio":0.588,"putCallVolumeFrontRatio":0.994,"optionVolume":6975,"volumeOiRatio":0.04483,"netDeltaNormalized":0.207253,"dealerDeltaNormalized":-0.196335,"gexPer100kOi":24801506.26655,"vannaPer100kOi":1789.983803,"charmPer100kOi":-2288056.276834,"weekendDeltaShiftPer100kOi":-6864168.187778,"ivSurfaceRangePp":94.3,"gammaFlipDistancePct":-2.719298,"maxPainDistancePct":-9.844055,"peakCallDistancePct":2.339181,"peakPutDistancePct":-2.534113},"complete_analysis_url":"https://halfonadouble.com/api/v1/analysis/PM.json?date=2026-10-16&public_schema=4","interpretation":"Catalyst intensity ranks unusual option pricing and activity; it does not identify the event, predict direction or recommend a trade. Directional score summarizes relative positioning under documented model conventions."},"gamma_max_cross_outcomes":[{"direction":"above","event_count":38,"completed_path_count":38,"latest_cross_date":"2026-05-14","horizons":[{"sessions":1,"sample_size":38,"median_return_pct":0.05468858043420344,"p25_return_pct":-0.918390428992158,"p75_return_pct":0.5881033243915701,"above_zero_pct":50,"median_interval_low_pct":-0.4736851803044395,"median_interval_high_pct":0.36823659348805826,"median_interval_nominal_coverage_pct":92.70486114837695,"confidence_floor_pct":0},{"sessions":3,"sample_size":38,"median_return_pct":0.005246609453668505,"p25_return_pct":-0.7758334815704843,"p75_return_pct":1.5005136943972763,"above_zero_pct":50,"median_interval_low_pct":-0.3456092482699291,"median_interval_high_pct":0.4854381555304377,"median_interval_nominal_coverage_pct":92.70486114837695,"confidence_floor_pct":0},{"sessions":5,"sample_size":38,"median_return_pct":0.3458992809467154,"p25_return_pct":-0.43120251407776367,"p75_return_pct":2.1469427091584894,"above_zero_pct":55.26315789473685,"median_interval_low_pct":-0.23232662316524655,"median_interval_high_pct":1.3235914614382782,"median_interval_nominal_coverage_pct":92.70486114837695,"confidence_floor_pct":0},{"sessions":10,"sample_size":38,"median_return_pct":-0.12100603140494104,"p25_return_pct":-2.1690383384608323,"p75_return_pct":3.708406817615484,"above_zero_pct":44.73684210526316,"median_interval_low_pct":-1.2998942504974909,"median_interval_high_pct":0.7033993571480934,"median_interval_nominal_coverage_pct":92.70486114837695,"confidence_floor_pct":0}]},{"direction":"below","event_count":37,"completed_path_count":37,"latest_cross_date":"2026-05-15","horizons":[{"sessions":1,"sample_size":37,"median_return_pct":0.3406063919304758,"p25_return_pct":-0.5336214321310928,"p75_return_pct":0.8580333160813636,"above_zero_pct":67.56756756756756,"median_interval_low_pct":0.0513114964840522,"median_interval_high_pct":0.6506269882003313,"median_interval_nominal_coverage_pct":90.1128250407055,"confidence_floor_pct":0.0513114964840522},{"sessions":3,"sample_size":37,"median_return_pct":0.4526213685961622,"p25_return_pct":-0.1361285098331777,"p75_return_pct":1.6285323304041421,"above_zero_pct":70.27027027027027,"median_interval_low_pct":0.2401976556867469,"median_interval_high_pct":1.0963346909514282,"median_interval_nominal_coverage_pct":90.1128250407055,"confidence_floor_pct":0.2401976556867469},{"sessions":5,"sample_size":37,"median_return_pct":0.5717608317243439,"p25_return_pct":-0.42338934175171206,"p75_return_pct":1.5905624425837983,"above_zero_pct":62.16216216216216,"median_interval_low_pct":-0.15558154527488544,"median_interval_high_pct":0.9040049412269546,"median_interval_nominal_coverage_pct":90.1128250407055,"confidence_floor_pct":0},{"sessions":10,"sample_size":37,"median_return_pct":-0.6986117324220942,"p25_return_pct":-3.3794893452610775,"p75_return_pct":2.0709926180885185,"above_zero_pct":45.94594594594595,"median_interval_low_pct":-2.480036484667225,"median_interval_high_pct":0.8040231675957799,"median_interval_nominal_coverage_pct":90.1128250407055,"confidence_floor_pct":0}]}],"missing_value_semantics":"null means unavailable; it never means zero","interpretation":"These are descriptive end-of-day model outputs. Signed GEX uses the published call-positive, put-negative convention and is not observed dealer inventory. None of the fields are live prices, predictions or investment advice."}